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Surviving platform fraud or fiasco

A picture of two pears with the caption ‘pear shaped’ to illustrate fraud or fiasco via that idiom

Should you – do you – fully trust your platform to look after your investments?

Might they hire a budding Bernie Madoff who siphons off your assets to his own account?

Or maybe a Mr Bean, who loses track of them altogether?

Surely our world-leading regulatory oversight would prevent anything so catastrophic from happening?

And anyway, there’s always the FSCS to bail you out if anything does go wrong, right?

Well…maybe.

In the second of (what I’ve just decided will be) my investment survival series, let’s look at how platforms aim to keep your assets safe.

(In case you’ve already forgotten, part one wasSurviving system meltdowns and cyber attacks.)

Where are my assets?

Platforms typically hold client assets in omnibus nominee accounts.

That is to say, your fund, equity, and cash holdings are pooled together with everyone else’s.

The legal owner of your assets is normally a nominee company or custodian appointed by the platform.

You are the beneficial owner, entitled to enjoy the dividend payments and sales proceeds.

The number of shares you see displayed on your account is from your platform’s own records. In many cases, the fund managers, company registrars, or banks don’t know who you are and what you own.

Thus, your financial well-being is heavily dependent on the successful functioning of the platform and its custodian.

What are the safeguards?

The Client Asset (CASS) rules are quite rightly one of the most important parts of the FCA Handbook.

Investment firms must:

  • Keep your assets separate from their own
  • Maintain a good record of what you have
  • Regularly check that it’s all still there

Every day, platforms get up-to-date statements from banks, fund managers, and security depositories. The platform then adds up all the client holdings of each asset and checks that they hold that many units (or shares or pounds) in their nominee account.

This is known as reconciliation.

If there’s any discrepancy, the platform must immediately put some of its own cash aside to cover any shortfall until the problem is resolved.

The nominee company is usually a separate legal entity from the platform. If the platform goes under, the legal owner of your assets should still be standing, and your assets should be out of reach of creditors of the platform.

The details of the appointed nominee will usually be given on the platform website, if you want to check.

The platform must appoint a senior person to be responsible for CASS compliance. This way the FCA knows who takes the rap if anything goes wrong.

Bulletproof, right?

In my experience, the platforms take CASS very seriously and have good people overseeing all this. I’ve never witnessed any behaviour that gives me any concerns.

And yet, and yet…

…the history of finance offers plenty of examples of astonishing levels of fraud and incompetence going undetected for extraordinarily long periods of time.

Ultimately, all the safeguards depend on key people being competent and honest. Whilst most of us try to think the best of people, there is a limit.

What could go wrong?

In 2020, the FCA fined Charles Schwab UK Ltd (CSUK) £9 million for failing to adequately protect client assets.

These failings included:

  • Incorrect records of client assets
  • Failure to reconcile client assets
  • Poor organisational structure
  • No resolution plan in case of insolvency

There were no client losses, but to a nervous investor, this still sounds quite damning.

I’m not sure whether to be comforted that the FCA is breathing down the neck of investment companies or worried that these problems arise in the first place.

The FCA’s summary stated:

Charles Schwab UK failed to put in place the necessary safeguards to ensure, if required, there could be an orderly return of client assets.

If a platform simply fails as a business, then you would expect segregated assets to be returned to clients in full without too much fuss.

If custody records are poor however, then the process of returning assets to clients will be harder and take longer.

But the real problems occur if that poor record keeping is covering up a genuine hole in client assets through incompetence or fraud.

What’s the worst that could happen?

In 2023, the FCA demanded that WealthTek, a wealth manager, cease operations after identifying an £80 million-plus shortfall in client assets and money.

The head of the company John Dance was later charged with allegedly diverting £64 million from client assets into his own accounts. The trial is now set for 2027.

It took over 18 months after the company went into administration for the first clients to see any of their money returned. Some had to wait more than a year longer than that.

According to the FCA, around 84% of clients got all their money back from the administrators.

Of the remaining 16%, some were covered by government compensation and some were not.

This is scary stuff.

On the plus side, Mr Dance did win the King George VI at Kempton in 2022 with one of the horses he bought with the allegedly stolen money.

Will the government bail me out?

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) can compensate you for up to £120,000 for the loss of cash held with a failed bank or building society, and up to £85,000 for the loss of assets held with a failed investment company.

In practice though, working out what you’ll be covered for is not always easy. If you want to know the details, there’s no better place to look than The Accumulator’s article referenced above.

But for now, his pithy summary is enough:

The FSCS investment protection scheme may come to your aid. But eligible claims have more strings attached than a puppet show.

In the case of WealthTek, the FSCS was clear that it would not cover all client losses:

The maximum amount payable to eligible WealthTek customers is £85,000 per client, inclusive of the cost contribution. We recognise that many clients may have lost more than £85,000 and will not have been fully compensated following the completion of this process.

Note the mention of costs. The costs of the administrator responsible for overseeing the wind up of the company were passed on to the clients.

For the 84% of WealthTek clients that got all their money back from the administrator, the FSCS covered their share of the administration costs.

But for the 16% who didn’t, the administration costs compounded their losses.

Should we worry?

WeakthTek was a relatively small wealth manager. It’s highly unlikely that any mainstream platform will fail. It’s even less likely that there would be any shortfall in client assets.

But it is not impossible.

If you’re still in the early stages of accumulating wealth, you probably shouldn’t worry too much. You have less at stake, and you should get everything back well before you need it.

But if you’re at the end of that journey and relying on your assets for income then the risks, however small, become more pertinent.

You won’t be able to make up any losses from earnings if you’ve stopped working. And even where there are no client losses, you can hardly get by without income for two years.

What can we do?

Most obviously, if you spread your assets across multiple investment platforms, then your losses will be lower if one fails and you will still be able to take income from elsewhere.

It would also be sensible to make sure that your chosen platforms are not owned by the same parent company. This would have implications for FSCS limits. Having all your eggs in one basket leaves you exposed to the risk of a failed company infecting others in the group.

For instance:

  • Interactive Investors is owned by Aberdeen, which also owns a couple of adviser platforms.
  • Lloyds Banking Group owns both the Scottish Widows platform (formerly iWeb) and Halifax/Lloyds Bank Share Dealing.

It might also be wise to stick with platforms owned by large banks or investment companies with deep pockets, risk averse operations, and a hard-earned reputation to protect. Size is no guarantee against failures, but large, well-capitalised firms might be better able to absorb losses and have stronger incentives to protect their reputation.

If a company is listed, so much the better as its accounts should be well scrutinised.

Lastly, you could keep a recent statement tucked away somewhere. The chances of all client records being permanently deleted are vanishingly small, but there might come a time when you’ll be thankful you have some evidence to show that the administrator has made a mistake.

And finally…

If you read my previous article, you may have spotted that the measures to protect yourself against cyber-attack are pretty much the same as those to protect against fraud.

But it’s good to think through all the risks to help decide how far you want to go to protect yourself.

Look out for part three of this survival series, which will address the breakdown of society. Spoiler: a PDF of your latest statement won’t help in that scenario.

Peaceful dreams!

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A sign that says “Old Age Ahead” as an analogy for thinking about future retirement living standards

Anyone planning for FIRE 1 knows it’s hard to think about retirement living standards while you’re still having a blast in your 20s and 30s – or even when you’re neck-deep in your responsible 40s and 50s.

Like a precog from Minority Report, you can only glimpse fragments of your future.

Happily, intrepid retirees have sent us back reports from the frontier. And they’ve supplied just enough detail to fill in the ‘Here Be Dragons’ gaps in your FI map.

The resultant research – Retirement Living Standards in the UK: 2025 update – plots three tiers of retirement spending: from Minimal to Moderate to Comfortable.

This annually-updated paper also reveals what kind of retirement living standards such spending really gets you – from people who are already doing it.

Much ado about much more than nothing

Retirement research gives us a shortcut to answering that perennial awkward cocktail party question: How much do I need to retire?

Okay, maybe it’s only personal finance bloggers who get asked such questions at parties…

Anyway, instead of doing laborious calculations on a spreadsheet, you could just pick one of the consensus retirement income answers published by the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA). 2

We’ll get to those in a minute. But a bonus of this research is it also includes testimonies from retirees and near-retirees drawn from various socio-economic backgrounds and regions across the UK.

If our retirement future is an unknown country, then their words act like an audio tour guide. We learn something about what really matters – and as ever, the experience of others might help us find our own path.

Plus it’s interesting to read. There’s nowt so queer as folk!

Okay, let’s start with the hard data. We’ll then move on to the fluffy anecdotal evidence.

Retirement living standards 2025: income targets

Source: PLSA

This table is a bronze, silver, and gold rostrum of annual retirement incomes – as determined by sampling members of the UK public aged 55 or older.

There’s also more granular detail on what you get for your money at each level. We’ll get to that shortly but – spoiler alert – the Minimum lifestyle isn’t factoring in many trips to Florida.

What’s not clear from the table is the income numbers are after-tax.

This makes it an interesting contrast with the UK median household disposable income 3 of £36,700 as of the end of 2024, according to the most recent ONS data.

The poorest 20% of households are on £16,800 (including benefits) and the richest 20% have £71,100 to spend. Remember this is disposable income. 

As for the median retired household income, that’s £29,728 – about 9% shy of the Moderate spending level for couples in the table.

Note that the PLSA expects the State Pension to do much of the heavy lifting in retirement. Especially at the Minimum standard.

This is why we think there’s no need to fear the State Pension being done away with. Scrapping it would be catastrophic for any government.

Solo sorrows

Another thing that leaps out from the table? Life is expensive for singletons.

The most effective cost-saving measure any retiree can make is to couple-up. No wonder there are so many senior Casanovas out there!

Be sweet to your significant other and keep them healthy. Give flowers, not chocolate. 

What you get for your money

To understand the life of Riley promised by the numbers in the table, we need to dive deeper to see what our pounds are purchasing.

Here’s the singles version:

And for couples:

There is much social division written into these lines – especially in the contrast between the top and bottom. Please draw your own conclusions. I’d love to hear them in the comments.

While the table forces a statement of spending priorities, the reality is that many of us will drift back and forth across the tiers, depending on where we prefer to direct our financial firepower. 

For example, The Accumulators are in the Minimum zone for clothing. But we’re in the Comfortable bucket for transport.

Retiree vox pops

What I most like about such research isn’t the numbers, however. It’s the voices.

The 2023 edition featured study participants discussing their lived experience for each major spending category. From this, a portrait emerges of retirement reality, painted in the primary colours of what money can buy.

The anonymous quotes below are excerpts from the study’s 2023 group sessions. (Sadly the 2025 report doesn’t feature these breakdowns, though they received a light update in 2024.)

Food spending

The snapshot above shows the foodie living standard each income band afforded in 2023.

The Comfortables are clearly loading their plates with much more spice of life than the Minimums. At least on the surface.

I say that because one of the things that the FIRE community has been great at is uncovering ways to enjoy life without throwing money at it. 

For instance, you can take turns hosting dinners with your friends, which keeps you all socially engaged – and hopefully well-fed – without the overheads of eating out.

Still, rampant inflation in recent years hasn’t helped on this score, either. As one woman told the study:

I don’t think it’s just so much taking people out, but it is having people to the house to cook for them… which you are spending quite a lot of money to then invite people round to, you know, feed five or six people which I would probably do once a month.

In my 20s I spent like The Comfortables on eating out. That was just how I lived the life.

Now I’m under-spending The Minimums and I’m happy with that. 

Housing spending

There’s been a sea change in how the study treats housing costs. Prior to 2025, it was assumed Minimums pay social housing rent while Moderates and Comfortables would have paid off their mortgages by retirement.

However, participants no longer believe it’s reasonable to assume that Brits can access social housing if they need it – especially in London. And costs escalate dramatically if you add in rent (figures from the 2025 report):

Earlier on, we saw a retired couple required about £24,100 to scrape a Minimum standard of living in London in 2025 (Green lozenge). 

But the minimum cost soars over 81% (red lozenge) if retirees are fully exposed to the private rental market, according to this research. 

Much of that hike can apparently be covered by housing benefit. However I’m none too sanguine about that. Wouldn’t it be better to build more social housing than line landlord’s pockets with taxpayers’ money?

2023’s study participants forecast trouble ahead for the researchers’ mortgage-free retirement assumptions, too: 

I think that it is probably reasonable now that they would own it but in ten years’ time perhaps they would be more likely to rent?

Personally, I think we’ve fallen short as a country on home ownership. It’s hypocritical to hoover up housing stock and lock future generations out of the market by failing to build. We’re creating a generational divide that puts social cohesion at risk – even as younger generations are still meant to bankroll the NHS, long-term care, State Pensions, and fixing the climate crisis. 

Also, the study appears to radically underestimate other housing cost. These are set at £1,300 per year for the Comfortables in 2025. That amount seemingly covers energy costs, maintenance and decoration, plus buildings and contents insurance.

There’s not a cat in hell’s chance you can keep a £1,300 lid on that lot. 

I’d suggest the researchers need to redo their sums. Bear in mind the rule-of-thumb: 1% to 4% of your property’s value annually for upkeep and repairs.

Til divorce do us part

Finally on keeping a roof over your head, divorce looms large as a catastrophic roll of the dice in the game of housing snakes and ladders:

Lifestyles nowadays, people like myself got divorced a couple of times, I ended up on my own and … I live in rented. I have had houses and owned them in the past, but because of circumstances and stuff I don’t.

Divorce is often mentioned by readers in the Monevator comments as a third-party calamity. (Excuse me while I google ‘thoughtful gifts’.)

Speaking of unhappy endings I’d rather not think about…

Body disposal etiquette

Being at an age where they’ve seen plenty of family and friends pass away, the study’s focus-grouped retirees are very pragmatic:

You could die with a million pounds but have your family got access to that million pounds to bury you?

Probably not because it has got to go through probate and solicitors so they might not have the £3K, £4K, £5K to bury you next week or in a fortnight’s time.

Pre-paid cremation plans are included in the Moderate and Comfortable budgets. The interviewees confirmed they didn’t want their loved ones to foot the bill.

Mrs Accumulator is under instruction to pop me out with the bins. But she says she will put me in the freezer so she can still chat to me.

We’re gonna need a bigger freezer.

Health issues

We all have teeth that get holes in them and eyes that go wonky, whatever our financial means.

So for dentistry, for example, each of the retirement living standards bands includes the cost of a check-up every six months and one treatment per year, such as a filling, as well as including the cost of replacing dentures every five years.

In an ominous sign of the times, contributors voiced fears about being able to rely on the State for medical treatment:

You need to be able to have money available in case you need [it] because you can’t rely on the NHS well unless you want to wait in pain for ten years or something.

Private healthcare is always a talking point for the study’s focus groups, but it apparently loomed extra large back in 2023. It was not included in the retirement budgets this time – but for how much longer?

Funding the NHS feels like another slow-moving car crash that we’re not grappling with as a society.

Are we prepared to pay more in taxes? Can we reduce the burden on the NHS by looking after ourselves more? (I mean by living healthier lifestyles that increase our chances of staving off chronic conditions, not DIY brain surgery!)

No amount of private health insurance will save us if we need urgent assistance but must wait two days for an ambulance.

Moolah for manscaping 

At least if you’re hit by the proverbial bus, you might be more likely to have your best face on for it these days.

The various spending budgets have always included beauty treatments for women.

But now there’s a budget for men too at the Moderate and Comfortable levels.

The researchers note:

“a shift in social norms and expectations and that, as one participant put it, ‘they like it all these men nowadays, they are all grooming themselves aren’t they?’.

The budget included for women covered the cost of beauty treatments, such as manicures and eyebrow threading.

However the focus groups suggested the budget for men could cover the cost of ‘grooming’ such as a shave at the barber or a facial massage, as well as, for example, occasional physiotherapy appointments or sports massages.

While some may despair of ever escaping from society’s expectations about personal appearance, at least it seems positive that:

…in general, groups talked about retirement now being a far more active period and as a consequence there should be a budget to cover these sorts of treatments.

Social and cultural participation

Comfortables are spending 150% more per person per week on leisure activities than The Minimums.

The potential impact of that spending power on a life well-lived is captured in this quote:

It is really important for mental health and everything as well isn’t it? So you know even day classes or evening classes are everything. You don’t get much… I don’t think you get much less if you’re retired.

Interestingly, this budget area hasn’t increased much over time. Perhaps that reflects more flexibility within this category? Gym memberships can give way to running shoes and walking boots, for example.

Early Mr Money Mustache was a trailblazer in rethinking life’s riches so they don’t cost a packet.

I’m not sure anyone has replaced him in this respect? Let me know who I’m missing in the comments.

Tech tock

The social participation category also includes spending on technology – an ever-changing hit to our (increasingly digital) wallets.

DVD players are long gone, obviously. But streaming services are now considered an essential at every income level:

I was going to say it is for your mental health well-being as well, socially included because if you’re not able to watch Netflix you know a small series like that, I just feel that is you socially excluded as well.

Interestingly, ‘cleverer’ home technology such as passive cameras and smart speakers crept into the budgets and anecdotes as more of a necessity.

One participant explained in 2023 why she’d sorted out a smart speaker for her father:

A couple of months ago he did fall and had we set up in time he would have been able to call one of us because he couldn’t reach his mobile phone.

You can ask Alexa to phone so they are a good feature on that so they’re well worth the money to be honest.

But smart speakers were already considered surplus to requirements in 2024 as phones have colonised the space. 

The spread of smartphones among retirees is notable in itself. All the Boomers in my life have upgraded, after years of resistance. Though they do still sometimes stare at the thing like a caveman facing a mortgage application. 

Will an AI subscription be de rigueur the next time the research is overhauled?

“Hello Future Me”

Retirement is difficult to imagine until you get there. We plan it out on bland spreadsheets and struggle to relate our parents’ experiences to our own.

Making it even harder is that friendship groups tend to be intra-generational. I know more about the trials of my elders via Monevator readers than I do from real-life.

That’s why I found the retirement thumbnails in this research so fascinating. I heard things people don’t normally talk about.

What have you got to say for yourselves? Please do flesh out the picture for all of us in the comments below.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

P.S. It’s interesting to contrast the 2025 numbers above with the 2023 figures:

Weirdly, the Minimum lifestyle is cheaper in 2025: 

  • £13,900 for a singleton outside London
  • £14,600 for London singles despite all those Tinder dates
  • £24,100 for couples in the capital
  • £22,500 for provincial double-acts. Not down but well below an inflationary rise from 2023

The drop occurred in 2024, when the researchers re-analysed the assumptions underpinning the Minimum lifestyle’s budgetary requirements. 

It helped that utility bills fell after the energy crisis. But sadly people also allocated less money for the fun stuff like celebratory food and drinks. 

The historical detail for 2023:

  1. Financial Independence Retire Early.[]
  2. The PLSA is a financial industry group. It includes asset managers, consultants, law firms, and fintechs. They’re so keen to get Britain saving for retirement that they commission this research from Loughborough University’s Centre for Research in Social Policy.[]
  3. Disposable income is what’s left after direct taxes, such as Income Tax, National Insurance, and Council Tax.[]
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Weekend reading: If the drugs do work

Our Weekend Reading logo

I was interested to see that Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill was approved last week by the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

With the nation busily sitting on the sofa and shouting at footballers to run faster, it feels like appropriate timing.

Weekend Reading – featuring the week’s best money and investing articles from around the web – can be read by any logged-in Monevator member. Alternatively please subscribe to our free email newsletter to get future editions direct to your inbox.

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Investors are still Out of Office (and other REITs…) post image

Another disappointing result for DIY corporate financiers this week. Having hosted the ‘Fair Sale’ over itself nearly two years ago, Residential Secure Income (LSE: RESI) has announced that most of its assets are set to be acquired by the Social Housing REIT (LSE: SOHO).

SOHO will get RESI’s retirement home portfolio, with the rump of RESI’s assets going to a currently unnamed bidder.

The mostly paper-based deal values RESI at about 57p per share, depending on movements in SOHO’s share price.

There are a few moving parts to the deal. But the point to note is that RESI was priced at about 60p a share in October 2024 when it first announced it was winding itself down. Hence this has hardly been a barnstorming return for anyone who bought into the REIT 1 in hopes of unlocking value.

Moreover, RESI’s tangible NAV 2 was nearer 80p in late 2024, compared to c.63p at the last count. RESI did sell a different chunk of its portfolio in early 2025, but that all went on debt repayment.

So its managers have presided over a shrinking asset base that’s ultimately been sold at a still-meaningful discount to NAV.

The total return situation isn’t quite as dispiriting. RESI yields over 7%, so when you take dividends into account investors were at least paid to wait for their mediocre outcome.

RESI’s managers would no doubt stress too that shareholders who keep their SOHO shares after the sale completes will retain ongoing exposure to RESI’s attractive (and discounted) assets, via the newly enlarged parent.

But still, this is hardly the sort of outcome that Joel Greenblatt touted in his classic book You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, when he explained how ordinary investors can profit from corporate activity in the public markets.

REIT petite

I wrote about the opportunity in RESI for Moguls in January 2025. In the same post I also highlighted that Abrdn European Logistics Income (LSE: ASLI) was on the block, too.

The ASLI outcome was a bit better. Shareholders should eventually get around a 20% return from memory, once the protracted endgame is over.

(Surely we can also all rejoice any time an instance of the dreaded moniker ‘Abrdn’ is put out of its misery!)

But again, the ASLI wind-down did not release vast swathes of value. And that has been the trend with this REIT consolidation that began after the yield-driven rout of 2022.

Cut-price deals: everything must go

A.J. Bell recently published a handy roundup of all this REIT sales and merger activity, and the premiums – or otherwise – achieved:

Source: Company accounts / A.J. Bell

Note: Negative moves/premiums in brackets.

While these actions spurred some worthwhile-ish share price pops, they have nearly all seen assets taken out at a big discount to NAV. Which I suppose isn’t surprising in hindsight, given the huge discounts that even the largest and most liquid UK REITs still trade on.

This suggests two things.

Firstly, there are not many buyers for these property assets – either from the public or private domains.

Secondly, neither the market nor the companies themselves consider these commercial property NAVs as anything like gilt-edged. They are more, as the pirate’s code puts it, guidelines.

Clearly, fears and uncertainties still abound – six years after Covid plunged the future of commercial property into doubt, three years after interest rate rises did a number on the economics, and a couple of years into A.I. making everyone nervous about what the future of humans at work really looks like anyway.

The REIT stuff

When a sector is this unloved, it’s hard to remember it wasn’t always so. But the real estate sector’s status as stock market booby prize isn’t a law of nature.

Throughout the 1990s and the early 2000s, property was lauded as a halfway house between bonds and equities.

The pitch? You got the attractive income of bonds and some of the capital gains of shares, with a dose of inflation-hedging thrown into the mix, too. Back then even passive investors saw the value of adding REIT exposure to their portfolios. They hoped for a bit of lower-risk additional diversification.

Property developers thrived as much as the steadier landlords. Money was cheap, and as global capital searched for more touchy-feely returns following the Dotcom crash, prestige skyscrapers began to sprout across the world’s major cities, minting millions.

It’s hard to believe nowadays, but many UK REITs and blue chip property developers actually used to trade at a premium to NAV!

Confident investors anticipated valuation gains and higher incomes, and they were happy to front run them.

Bargain buildings

That all ended with the financial crisis, however, and the asset class has never recovered. Big discounts to NAV for commercial property REITs abound.

Here’s how the UK bellwethers trade compared to their assets:

CompanyMarket capPrice / NAVDiscount
Segro (LSE: SGRO)£10bn744p / 925p(20%)
Land Securities (LSE: LAND)£4.7bn629p / 882p(29%)
LondonMetric (LSE: LMP)£4.3bn182p / 201p(9%)
British Land (LSE: BLND)£4.1bn 401p / 590p(32%)

Source: Company reports / Prices as of 18 June 2026

Imagine walking around town and seeing giant 30%-off labels slapped across the frontages of office blocks and shopping centres. That’s effectively what you get with most REITs – large and small – today. £10 of assets on sale for £7 or less.

LondonMetric – which has driven much of the sector consolidation that we began with – is on a narrower discount, true. Partly that’s thanks to its stronger balance sheet and tighter terms with tenants.

But I’d also argue LondonMetric has won investors over by telling a better story. That’s what the rest of the REITs need to do. (And ideally for it to be true, of course!)

REIT-sizing exposure

Even my co-blogger, The Accumulator, gave me stick about REITs the other day.

Apparently I’d persuaded TA that he should keep them in our Slow & Steady portfolio when he soured on the asset class.

It was a few years ago, but he hadn’t forgotten!

TA’s disenchantment with REITs will be driven more by revisiting the historical record than by the sector’s recent travails. All the same, if REITs were multi-bagging like semiconductor stocks I wonder if there’d be quite so much soul-searching?

Equally, I think I suggested we retain them more due to my bias against fussing too much with a model portfolio than out of conviction that the asset class was cheap.

Still, maybe this is another signal?

Most things in investing are cyclical. When even diehard passive investors are ready to throw in the towel, perhaps the bottom is near.

Most of the major REITs have been doing a lot better of late. Rents are up, and even office valuations are stabilising, if not rising. Albeit more for the top-end stuff.

The surviving players have navigated a once-in-a-generation interest rate shock, too.

Real estate investment vehicles invariably carry a lot of debt. So when interest rates spiked it not only made their dividend payouts relatively less attractive and pressured their tenants – it also stressed their own balance sheets.

The past three years saw debts refinanced and restructured though, and to my mind the big REITs now look pretty solid. They’ve even begun to invest in new developments.

Improving cashflows underpin generous dividend yields of 4-7% for the REITs in my table. I’d say that’s attractive, given there’s an inherent ability to respond to inflation (compared to vanilla bonds) and the prospect – eventually – of more capital growth.

Priced for imperfection

While I might keep my shares in SOHO when the RESI deal completes, I think I’m more inclined to look at the stronger REITs than to punt again on the little guys being taken over.

With hindsight, it was optimistic to expect the smaller prey to get acquired at close to NAV when the big predators themselves were still badly limping.

Sector consolidation was necessary – too many sub-scale REITs were launched in the near-zero interest rate era. But investors aren’t being rewarded for the extra risks.

In contrast, the big REITs will hopefully see continued strong dividends and eventually some more share price growth. And there’s the prospect of a double-whammy gain if property valuations increase even as discounts narrow to meet those rising NAVs.

Of course, there are risks – everything from the sorry state of the UK economy and politics to the need to upgrade old offices to comply with environmental standards to AI threatening to send white-collar workers to not-work-from-home forever.

But the discounts likely reflect a lot of these dangers, given the underlying metrics are now improving. And to the upside, with oil flows set to resume through Hormuz and inflation risks hopefully contained, we might eventually even see more interest rate cuts.

That’d really help refurbish the appeal of property. Just ask Donald Trump!

  1. Real Estate Investment Trust[]
  2. Net Asset Value Per Share.[]
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