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The ISA allowance: how it works and how to use it

How much can you put in your ISA piggy bank this year?

There’s been a fair bit of fiddling with the ISA rules of late. Let’s kick off with a summary of the significant changes, before moving onto how to make the most of your ISA allowance.

The key changes for the tax year 6 April 2025 to 5 April 2026:

  • You can now open multiple ISAs of the same type in any tax year
  • You can partially transfer money between ISA providers that you contributed in the current tax year. Previously this was forbidden
  • Fractional shares were approved for use in stocks and shares ISAs after HMRC gave everyone a scare

Happily, ISAs aren’t affected by any big rule changes in the upcoming tax year of 2026-27.

However, the cash ISA allowance is being cut to £12,000 from 6 April 2027 – if you’re under age 65. The cash ISA allowance will remain at £20,00o though if you’re over 65.

One mad side-effect of the new cash ISA rules is that holdings deemed ‘cash like‘ are likely to become ineligible in shares ISAs (or at least subject to interest charges). That will make it harder to manage investment risk.

The total annual ISA allowance is unchanged at £20,000

Your annual ISA allowance 1 for the current tax year to 5 April is £20,000.

The allowance will remain frozen at £20,000 until 6 April 2031. (Watch this space!)

It’s only cash ISAs that are being capped at £12,000 in 2027.

Once the cash ISA cap cap comes into force, you’ll need to split your money between multiple ISA types if you want to max out your overall ISA allowance. You could put £12,000 into a cash ISA and £8,000 in a stocks and shares ISA, for example.

The government is also consulting on replacing the Lifetime ISA (LISA) with a new product aimed at first time home buyers.

Existing LISAs will apparently be allowed to continue as per the current rules.

Okay, that’s all the major changes for now. We’ll mention any knock-on effects where relevant in the rest of our guide to making the most of your ISA allowance.

What is an ISA?

ISA stands for Individual Savings Account. It’s the UK’s most important tax-free account for those savings and investments you want to access before retirement age.

ISAs are called tax-free wrappers because they legally protect the assets inside the account from:

  • Income tax on interest paid by cash, bonds, and bond funds. The tax rate on ‘savings income’ is going up 2% from 6 April 2027.
  • Dividend income tax on dividends paid by shares and equity funds. The ordinary and upper rates rise 2% from 6 April 2026.
  • Capital gains tax paid on the growth in value of assets such as shares, bonds, and funds.

You don’t even have to declare your ISA assets on your self-assessment tax return. This can save you a ton of tax paperwork.

Your assets remain tax-free as long they’re held in an ISA account… so long as you don’t have the cheek to die.

And you don’t lose out if you move abroad. (At least not from the perspective of the UK government.)

Unlike a pension, your ISA funds are typically 2 accessible at any time.

You’re also not charged income tax on withdrawals from an ISA – again unlike a pension. So there’s no danger of being pushed into a higher tax bracket by the wealth you accumulate in your ISA.

  • Read up on ISAs Vs SIPPs to learn how best to allocate between them.

ISA accounts: what types are there?

ISA type Allowance 3 Eligible investments Notes
Stocks and shares ISA £20,000 OEICs, Unit Trusts, Investment Trusts, ETFs, individual shares and bonds Age 18+. Can be flexible, but only cash can be added and withdrawn
Cash ISA £20,000 Savings in instant access, fixed rate, and regular varieties 18+. Again can be flexible
Innovative Finance ISA (IFISA) £20,000 Peer-to-peer loans (P2P), crowdfunding investments, property loans Age 18+. Can be flexible. Not covered by FSCS compensation scheme
Lifetime ISA (LISA) £4,000 As per cash ISA or stocks and shares ISA Open account from age 18 until 40. Pay in until age 50. Only use for buying first home (worth up to £450k), or from age 60, otherwise penalty charge
Junior ISA (JISA) £9,000 4 As per cash ISA or stocks and shares ISA Open until age 18. Child may withdraw funds from 18+

The ISA allowances are currently frozen until 6 April 2031.

Help to Buy ISAs are no longer available. If you have one already you can continue to save into it until 30 November 2029.

What about the NISA? NISA stands for New Individual Savings Account. This term described the new-style ISAs brought in by rule changes in 2014. Today every ISA follows the NISA rules, so the jargon is obsolete.

How much can I put in an ISA in 2025 – 2026?

You can save up to £20,000 of new money into your ISAs during the tax year 6 April 2025 to 5 April 2026.

All £20,000 of your ISA allowance can go into one ISA 5 or you can split it across any combination of the following ISA types:

  • Cash ISA
  • Stocks and shares ISA
  • Lifetime ISA (£4,000 annual limit)
  • Innovative Finance ISA

You can now pay new money into multiple ISAs of the same type. The exception is the LISA. You’re still restricted to just one of those per year.

But you can open and fund two stocks and shares ISAs in the same year – or seven different cash ISAs if you feel the need – just so long as you don’t pay in more than £20,000 total into all your ISAs within the tax year.

What about money in previous years’ ISAs? That money does not count towards your annual ISA allowance for the current tax year.

For clarity’s sake, we’ll refer to assets in your previous years’ ISAs as old money. Assets in the current tax year’s ISAs we’ll term new money.

Interest, dividends, and capital gains earned on assets already held within an ISA do not count towards your ISA allowance.

Your £20,000 ISA annual allowance is a ‘use it or lose it’ deal. You can’t rollover any of it into the following tax year.

ISA transfers

An ISA transfer enables you to officially switch an ISA’s holdings to another provider. This way you avoid losing the tax exemption on your assets when moving them.

The transfer rules for any ISA opened in the current tax year are straightforward:

  • You can transfer any amount of your ISA’s balance from one provider to another. You used to have to transfer the whole balance of your current tax year ISA but that rule has been scrapped.
  • You’re free to transfer your ISA at any time to another provider. No buyer’s remorse with ISAs!
  • You can currently transfer to any other type of ISA, or even the same type. However, HMRC say that from 6 April 2027 you will no longer be able to transfer from stocks and shares ISAs or Innovative Finance ISAs into cash ISAs. Seems harsh, but there you are.
  • If you transfer from one type of ISA to another, then you count as subscribing to the receiving ISA type. For example, you transfer from a cash ISA to a LISA.
  • If you transfer from a Lifetime ISA to a different ISA type before age 60, you’ll have to pay a nasty penalty charge.
  • Beware any transfer fees imposed by your current ISA provider.
  • Transfers into a Lifetime ISA must not exceed the £4,000 current tax year limit.

The golden rule with any ISA move is always to transfer your money. Don’t just go “sod it!” and withdraw your cash in a flounce. If you transfer your ISA to another provider, your assets retain their tax-free status. If you just withdraw the money they don’t.

ISA transfer rules for previous years’ ISAs

You can transfer any amount from any of your old ISAs to the same or any other type of ISA.

  • Any number of your old ISAs can be consolidated into a new ISA of the same or different type. (Again, we expect transfers of non-cash ISAs into cash ISAs will be banned.)
  • Any of your old ISAs can be split by transferring a portion of the balance into multiple ISAs of the same or different types.
  • You can transfer to the same or different providers.

Transferring previous years’ ISAs leaves your current tax year’s allowance untouched.

For example, moving £40,000 from an old ISA into a new ISA still leaves you with a £20,000 ISA allowance for the current tax year.

You could transfer £4,000 into this year’s LISA from an old ISA (of any type), gain the government bonus, and leave your £20,000 allowance entirely intact.

This move maxes out your LISA allowance for the tax year. You must not then exceed that £4,000 LISA limit by transferring more cash into the LISA during the current tax year.

As before, make sure you transfer an ISA. Employ the new provider’s ISA transfer process to maintain your ISA money’s tax-free status. Don’t withdraw cash or re-register assets using any other method.

Withdrawing from an ISA

If you withdraw money from your ISA, can you replace it and not reduce your ISA limit?

Yes, but only if your ISA is designated as ‘flexible’.

If your ISA is not flexible (ask your provider) then a withdrawal reduces your tax-free ISA savings as follows:

  • You put £10,000 into your ISA. That reduces your ISA allowance to £10,000.
  • Next you withdraw £5,000 from your ISA.
  • You can only contribute another £10,000 into your ISAs this tax year.
  • Put that money in, and you’ll have added £15,000 to your ISAs in total by the end of the tax year.

Obviously £15,000 is less than £20,000, and so you’ll not have maximised your annual allowance. (Unless it’s a cash ISA from 6 April 2027 – and you’re under 65!)

Enter Flexible ISAs, which get around this problem.

Flexible ISAs

Flexible ISAs let you withdraw cash and put it back in again later the same tax year without losing any of your current tax year’s ISA allowance or reducing how much you’ve saved tax-free.

The following ISA types can be designated as flexible:

  • Stocks and shares ISA
  • Cash ISA
  • Innovative Finance ISA

Flexibility is not an inalienable right. An ISA provider must decide to offer it and to deal with the administrative faff. Providers may offer flexible and inflexible versions of the same ISA type.

Here’s how the flexible ISA rules work:

  • ISA allowance = £20,000
  • Contributed so far = £10,000
  • Remaining contribution = £10,000
  • You choose to withdraw = £5,000

In this case you can still pay £15,000 into your flexible ISA before the ISA deadline at the end of the tax year because:

Remaining ISA allowance = £15,000 (£10,000 remaining contribution + £5,000 replacement of the withdrawal.)

A formula for calculating the remaining ISA allowance when you withdraw from a flexible ISA

If your ISA was inflexible then your remaining ISA allowance would be just £10,000. In other words, you couldn’t replace the withdrawn amount and it would have lost its tax-free status.

Flexible ISAs: contributing factors

Contributions made to an ISA in the same tax year as withdrawals work in this order:

  1. Replace the withdrawal.
  2. Reduce your remaining ISA annual allowance.

Withdrawals from an old flexible ISA can be replaced in the same tax year. This won’t reduce your current ISA allowance, provided the ISA is no longer active. 6

When flexible ISAs contain assets from previous tax years and the current tax year it works like this:

Withdrawals

  1. From money contributed in the current tax year.
  2. From money contributed in previous tax years.

Replacement contributions

  1. Replace previous tax year’s withdrawals.
  2. Replace current tax year withdrawals.
  3. Reduce your remaining ISA annual allowance.

All replacement contributions must happen in the same tax year as the withdrawal.

Some providers say the withdrawal has to be replaced in the same ISA account you took it from.

More quirky than an octogenarian British actor

The ISA rules enable you to put your withdrawn money back into different ISA type(s) with the same provider, if they make that facility available.

Check your provider’s T&Cs. Or send them thousands of emails in BLOCK CAPITALS until they respond.

A flexible stocks and shares ISA allows you to replace the value of cash withdrawn. You can’t replace the value of shares, or other investment types that you moved out of the account, should they afterwards change.

You can sell down your assets, withdraw the cash, and then replace that cash later in the tax year, and buy more assets with it.

Dividend income should also be flexible in a flexible ISA scenario.

If you transfer your flexible ISA to another provider, then check its product is also flexible.

You may lose the ability to replace withdrawals if you don’t replace them before you transfer a flexible ISA. Again, this is determined by your provider’s T&Cs rather than the rules. (Subject them to a paid social media campaign to get an answer on this one.)

If your withdrawals result in your account being closed, your provider can allow you to reopen your flexible ISA in the same tax year and replace the money. That applies to old and new ISA accounts.

Again, check with your provider. (Via a billboard installed outside their office if need be.)

Flexible ISA hack to build your tax-free ISA allowance

  1. Open a flexible, easy access cash ISA that accepts ISA transfers.
  2. Transfer your non-flexible old ISAs into the flexible ISA.
  3. Your flexible ISA now accommodates the value of the old ISAs – say £40,000.
  4. If your flexible ISA doesn’t pay table-topping interest then withdraw your cash and spread it liberally among the humdinger savings accounts of your choice, or an offset mortgage.
  5. Move your cash back into the flexible ISA by 5 April of the current tax year. Fill as much of the current year’s ISA allowance as you can, too. For instance another £20,000.
  6. In our example, you now have £40,000 + £20,000 = £60,000 tax-free and flexible.
  7. From April 6 of the new tax year: withdraw your cash and liberally spread it.
  8. Repeat as required – because this operation will be severely curtailed when the new cash ISA limit comes in.

This method builds up a large and flexible tax-free shelter. One that could prove valuable later in life, when you have more money to tuck away.

For example, perhaps it could become a place to shelter and grow your 25% tax-free pension cash when you take it. This could be instantly transferred into a stocks and shares ISA, come the day.

Or maybe you’ll sell a business, or receive some other windfall.

Watch out for the £120,000 FSCS compensation limit (see below). Open a new flexible ISA with a different authorised firm before you go over that line.

What happens if you exceed the ISA allowance?

HMRC should get in touch if you exceed the ISA allowance. You may be let off for a first offence, but otherwise it will instruct your ISA provider on what action to take.

Action is likely to include your extraordinary rendition to an offshore black site where you will be forced to read HMRC compliance manuals for the rest of your life.

Alternatively, HMRC may require overpayments and excess income to be removed from your account. And also invite you to pay income tax and capital gains (potentially on all assets in the ISA) from the date of the invalid subscription until the problem is fixed.

Eek!

Your ISA provider may also charge you a fee for the hassle.

You can similarly get into hot water for dropping new money into your ISA as a UK non-resident or for breaking the age restrictions.

You can call HMRC on 0300 200 3300 to discuss all this.

Just don’t expect them to admit to the Deep State stuff. Open your eyes sheeple! [Editor’s note: we’re joking.]

FSCS compensation scheme

What if your ISA provider goes bust and your money can’t be recovered? In that case the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) waits in the wings.

  • Innovative Finance – Not covered by the FSCS. You’re on your own.

Watch out for the definition of an ‘authorised firm’. Often multiple brand names sit under the same authorised firm umbrella.

For example, if you have cash at HSBC and First Direct then you’re only covered for £120,000 across both. They are one and the same authorised firm.

Investments parked at the same bank should be covered for another £85,000. That’s on top of your cash.

  • Check the FCA’s Financial Services Register to see what services your provider is authorised for.
  • Brands with matching FRN numbers (also known as registration numbers) count as the same authorised firm, not two separate firms. In other words, your accounts with both firms shelter under a compensation limit of £120,000 (cash) / £85,000 (investments).

Inheriting an ISA

The tax-free benefits of an ISA can be passed on to a surviving spouse or civil partner. 

(We’ll refer to a ‘spouse’ in the rest of this section but the ISA inheritance rules apply equally to a civil partner. Unfortunately they do not apply to unmarried partners). 

Upon death, all types of ISA (except a JISA) transform into a ‘continuing account of a deceased investor’. 

This so-called ‘continuing ISA’ can then grow tax-free until the deceased’s affairs are settled. 

The tax benefits of the deceased ISAs transfer to their spouse using an Additional Permitted Subscription (APS). 

The APS is a one-time ISA allowance that enables the surviving spouse to expand their ISA holdings up to the value of the deceased’s ISA accounts. 

By this mechanism, the tax-free status of the deceased’s ISAs are passed on to their spouse. 

Unfortunately, the rules descend into a bureaucratic quagmire from there. 

ISA inheritance rules for the Additional Permitted Subscription

A surviving spouse qualifies for the APS even if the ISAs are actually willed to someone else. 

However, a spouse does not qualify if the couple are not living together at the time of death, or the marriage has broken down, they are legally separated, or in the process of being legally separated. 

The value of the APS is the higher of:

  • The ISA’s worth at the date of death
  • Its value when the continuing ISA account is finally closed (assuming part of the APS hasn’t already been used)

The APS must be claimed separately from each of the deceased’s ISA providers. 

You can choose which of the two valuation options above apply to each ISA provider. You don’t have to pick one option that applies across the board with every provider

The APS can be used from the date of death. 

Although you’d normally expect an APS to be funded by the inherited ISA assets, this is not necessary. An APS can be fulfilled by any assets the spouse owns. 

The APS must be used within:

  • Three years from the date of death
  • 180 days after the completion of the administration of the estate, if that’s later. 

The APS does not interfere with the spouse’s own ISA allowance. They get that as normal. 

APS subscriptions count as previous tax year subscriptions.

You should check the terms and conditions of all your ISAs to ensure they adhere to APS provisions. ISA providers aren’t automatically obliged to comply with the APS rules. 

APS rules per ISA provider

One common restriction is that the spouse must use their APS with the same provider that runs the deceased’s ISA account. This leads to extra complications, as we’ll cover below. 

As mentioned, the APS is divided into separate amounts that align to the value of the deceased’s continuing ISA accounts – as held with each of their providers.

For example:

  • A continuing ISA worth £100,000 is held with provider A
  • A continuing ISA worth £50,000 is held with provider B

The surviving spouse can now fund up to £100,000 of APS in ISAs with provider A, and up to £50,000 with provider B. 

You can’t fill ISAs worth £75,000 with both providers. You can only ‘spend’ up to the limit of each APS per provider. 

However, you can split each APS between any number and type of ISA per provider. (Although there are restrictions on the Lifetime ISA.)

You can fill both new and existing ISAs with each provider. 

Transferring inherited ISA assets

In specie transfers from a continuing stocks and shares ISA must be made within 180 days of the assets passing into the beneficial ownership of the surviving spouse.

The in specie transfer can only be made to a stocks and shares ISA held by the spouse with the continuing ISA’s provider. 

The assets must be the same as those held on the date of death. 

Alternatively you can sell the investments for cash. The money can then be used to fund the APS with slightly fewer restrictions. 

You can always transfer your ISAs to another provider as normal – after you’ve used your APS. 

Lifetime ISA APS restrictions 

You can’t open a new Lifetime ISA unless you’re aged between 18 to 40. 

You can’t pay into an existing Lifetime ISA unless you’re under 50. 

The APS does use up your £4,000 annual Lifetime ISA allowance. 

You can’t pay APS into a Lifetime ISA if you’ve already paid into one in the current tax year. 

A continuing ISA’s tax-free growth limits

Before the deceased assets are transferred via the mechanism we’ve just described, they grow tax-free in continuing ISAs until:

  • Completion of the administration of the estate
  • The accounts closure by the deceased’s executor
  • Three years and one day after the date of death. Then the account can be closed by the ISA provider 

The earliest of these dates applies. 

The value of the deceased’s ISA holdings count towards their estate. The tax-free benefits are only passed to a surviving spouse. 

Inheritance ISAs are a marketing label not an additional type of ISA. Every ISA can be inherited as described above. But please check your provider’s T&Cs for additional restrictions. 

What happens to my ISA if I move abroad?

You can still put new money into your ISA for the remainder of the tax year when you stop being a UK resident. But you can’t contribute new money again until your residential status changes back.

Your ISA assets will continue to grow free of UK tax. But watch out! Your new country of residence may demand a slice.

In addition:

  • You should still be able to transfer ISAs without losing your tax exemption.
  • Ditto for withdrawing money from a flexible ISA and replacing it.
  • You can still inherit an ISA using the APS even if you’re resident abroad.

Check with your provider before doing anything, just to be safe.

You should also tell your ISA provider when you’re no longer a UK resident. The UK means England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are excluded.

If you split your time between the UK and other territories you can do a residency test. This will determine your status. Fun!

You don’t lose your ISA annual allowance if you’re a Crown employee serving overseas, or their spouse or civil partner.

A few final ISA wrinkles

  • Each ISA can be held with the same or a different provider.
  • Payment into a JISA uses up the child’s allowance, not yours.
  • You can now hold fractional shares in a stocks and shares ISAs. They are ‘fractional interests’ in this list of qualifying investments.
  • Some providers have all-in-one cash ISAs. With these you can split new money between instant access and fixed-rate options, within a single ISA wrapper.
  • A workplace ISA counts as a stocks and shares ISA.
  • You can only claim the government bonus when buying your first home from a Help to Buy ISA or a Lifetime ISA. Not both.

Any questions?

Well, we’re sure this brief post has cleared everything up… But do let us know in the comments if we’ve missed a bit.

You can also check out the government’s official ISA pages if you’re a completist!

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

Note: This article on the ISA allowance was updated in February 2026. Reader comments below may refer to older ISA rules. Check the date to be sure.

  1. Also known to the government but to nobody else as the ‘subscription limit’.[]
  2. Exceptions: funds in a Junior ISA before the child reaches age 18, Lifetime ISA, Innovative Finance ISA loan lock-ins, and fixed-term/regular saver Cash ISAs where you’ll pay various penalties for early release.[]
  3. Max per year, per person.[]
  4. per child[]
  5. The max contribution into a LISA is £4,000 a year.[]
  6. That is to say you’re no longer filling it with new money.[]
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Weekend reading: the UK investor’s unlisted edge

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What caught my eye this week.

Robinhood is planning to launch a publicly traded fund to enable US investors to gain exposure to unlisted companies like SpaceX and Stripe.

It reminded me that this is one area where we UK investors actually have it better.

Similarly, the news of another soon-to-be listed venture fund in the US from an outfit called Powerlaw. It’s an investor in the likes of OpenAI and bleeding-edge weapons maker Anduril.

These kinds of risky but potentially revolutionary startups are meat and potatoes for Baillie Gifford, the Scottish manager that runs investment trusts like Scottish Mortgage and Edinburgh Worldwide.

And to my mind the investment trust structure is the ideal vehicle for holding private companies for the long term. It sidesteps the liquidity issues you inevitably get with open-ended funds that hold illiquid assets. And a trust’s transparency requirements and independent board of directors mean – at least in theory – extra safeguards for ordinary shareholders.

Ironically though, a big reason the investment trust sector has been under pressure for the past few years is precisely because some trusts have large holdings in unlisted companies!

Even storied RIT Capital still trades on a discount to net assets of over 25%, largely on account of its private holdings.

And this despite a track record of private investments previously delivering good returns for the fund.

Trusts worthy

The absolute amounts managed by such trusts is tiny in the grand scheme of things. Mighty Scottish Mortgage – by far the biggest – has an asset base of just £15bn. Many others – such as titchy Augmentum – manage only a fraction of that.

It wouldn’t take much new money flowing in for such trusts to grow. In an ideal world I think they would be gently expanding, not facing existential pressures for survival.

Of course they must deliver returns that make holding the trust worthwhile in the long run. Discount risk is a headache for many everyday investors, too.

But the trusts do offer genuinely different exposure (compared to say a trust that owns FTSE 100 stocks) and I think we take them for granted.

Investing in private assets is not for everybody today. But there’s an argument to be made that one day it could be. Public markets globally are shrinking. We’ve also seen the rise of multi-hundred billion dollar unlisted ‘start-ups’ that most investors have zero exposure to – and hence do not benefit from.

Hopefully we’ll still have a vibrant investment trust sector to serve private investors if and when we need them!

Have a great weekend.

[continue reading…]

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Investing in the face of AI: beauties or the beasts? [Members]

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I don’t know about you, but when I’m confronted with a technology poised to vapourise vast tracts of the economy, to put hundreds of millions out of work, and ultimately to preserve the dregs of human society in a genius robot’s version of an ant farm, well… I look to profit.

What did you expect? This is Moguls. We’ll leave the penning of laments to the poets. Or at least to those people pretending to be poets by using ChatGPT.

This article can be read by selected Monevator members. Please see our membership plans and consider joining! Already a member? Sign in here.
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Returns aren’t average

When I began planning my financial future, I became obsessed with nailing a realistic rate of return. All of the investment calculators required one.

Plus, everything else flowed from that number – such as how much I needed to save, and how long it would be before I could declare financial independence.

It seemed important. Because if I highballed the number then I was telling myself a fairy story, wasn’t I?

Eventually I read enough fusty old PDFs and insomnia-curing books to convince myself I had an answer.

The average inflation-adjusted rate of return for a portfolio of global equites was about 5%. More than 100 years of returns data said so.

You could dig up a similar number for bonds, too, and all the rest.

Do the maths, and hey presto! One time-tested, personalised rate of return.

Data mining

Then you get down to the hard work. Years of hacking away at the FI coalface. Celebrating when you hit a seam of double-digit returns. Face blackened when you’re scorched by a fireball of negative numbers.

But it’s the damnedest thing. That oh-so-achievable looking positive average return hardly ever turns up. Because investment returns are rarely average:

Data from JST Macrohistory 1, The Big Bang 2, Before the Cult of Equity 3, A Century of UK Economic Trends 4, St. Petersburg Stock Exchange Project 5, World Financial Markets 6, and MSCI. February 2026.

No matter how many annual return charts I see, I never get used to how nuts the variance is. Yet this carnival of volatility is a far better portrayal of the actual investment experience.

In the chart above, the blue line is the average annualised return for World equities 1900 to 2025. It currently stands at 5.6%. (All returns in this post are inflation-adjusted, GBP total returns).

However you can count on your fingers the number of annual returns that remotely resembled that figure. Across 126 years!

Which is fine and dandy when returns come in over the blue line: “Yay, I’m above average – maybe I’ll get to retire early?”

But it’s super-bleak whenever the bad years roll in. Then, everyone wonders if they’ve been sold a pup.

Optimism biased

Luckily a string of defeats doesn’t happen very often, as you can see from the chart. We haven’t experienced more than a single negative year in a row since the Dotcom Bust of 2000 to 2002.

Since then though, interest in DIY investing has exploded. I can only imagine the fear and loathing that’ll reverberate through the community if (when…) we suffer a sequence more like the 2000s, the 1970s, or the 1930s.

There’s no cure for human nature I suppose. But the Pollyanna problem has been on my mind lately, given nerve-janglingly extreme US market valuations.

Gold fingered

The wide variation of returns we see with equities holds too for every other asset class you can plausibly take refuge in. Such as gold…

Data from The London Bullion Market Association. February 2026.

Gold won the past decade. It’s also having a great year (so far).

Tempted? Beware that gold annual returns are certifiably insane.

The last 20 years have been amazing. But the 20 years between 1980 and the year 2000? Not so much.

Necessary historical footnote: The GBP gold price before 1975 was mostly either fixed or distorted by the impact of government regulation. Find out more in our deep dive into gold.

Show me the money

Data from JST Macrohistory 7, British Government Securities Database 8, and Millennium of Macroeconomic Data for the UK, 9. February 2026.

Cash operates in a narrower range, sure. Yet inflation and abrupt interest rate swings can send returns haywire.

I still wonder why everyone piled into money market funds when interest rates spiked in 2022. Had they forgotten the enormous cash bear market that raged from 2009?

Money markets lost over 27% from 2009 to 2023. Every year bar one was a loser. But it just didn’t feel like it because we don’t keep it real. (By which I mean inflation-adjusted!)

His skid mark materials

AQR 10, Summerhaven 11, and BCOM TR. February 2026.

Commodities are even scarier than equities. Some 42% of years are negative versus just 30% for World equities. You need a cast iron stomach to withstand that level of volatility.

But also look at the number of years commodities returned over 20% – and even 40% – in comparison to equities.

The penny finally drops when you discover that bonza commodities years often occur when equities are in the toilet.

Commodities’ average return looks pretty good, too: 4.3% annualised. Then again, this asset class is the epitome of ‘anything can happen and it probably will’.

Gilt complex

Data from JST Macrohistory 12, and FTSE Russell. February 2026.

Lastly, if not leastly, there’s government bonds – whose approval rating sank to Trumpian levels when gilts dished out their second-worst annual return on record in 2022.

All Stocks gilts (as featured in most UK government bond funds and ETFs) aren’t really much easier on the nerves than equities. Even worse, their average return is a miserable 0.76%.

The secret though is not to view bonds on their own. Bonds don’t make any sense in isolation. The magic happens when you throw them into a pot with other assets.

Kinda like how most people don’t eat raw chillies, but there’s widespread agreement that they add something to curries.

Enter the Pot-folio

Don’t even think about stealing my amazing new Pot-folioTM idea. I’ve trademarked the bejesus out of it. (What’s that? “Just stick to the charts, mate…?”)

The improvement wrought by sufficient diversification isn’t totally obvious in chart form. The down rods are definitely fewer and stumpier, though.

However looking at the raw numbers highlights the difference more clearly:

World equities The Pot-folio
Annualised return5.6%5%
Deepest drawdown-51.8%-36.5%
Longest drawdown13 years10 years
% years -10% or worse15%9%
Volatility16.2%11.6%
Ulcer Index18.49.8
Ulcer Performance Index0.280.47

In exchange for giving up a little return, you get fewer and less severe down years. That means:

  • Shallower drawdowns
  • Shorter drawdowns
  • Less volatility
  • Better risk-adjusted performance

The Ulcer Index is a measure of downside pain that translates drawdown depth and length into a single metric. A lower number is better.

Portfolio Charts introduced me to the Ulcer Index as devised by Peter Martin.

The Ulcer Performance Index is a risk-adjusted performance ratio that divides the excess annualised return by the Ulcer Index number. Here higher is better.

You say portfolio, I say Pot-folio, you say “Go do one”

I haven’t spent time optimising the Pot-folio. It’s just an equity-tilted variant of an All-Weather portfolio.

Essentially, you maintain positions in assets that when combined can cope with most people’s shopping list of worries:

  • Growth – equities
  • Inflation – commodities, index-linked gilts
  • Recession / panic – government bonds, gold, cash
  • Stability / liquidity – cash

However, as much as everyone buys into the concept of diversification, it’s fair to say investors spend more time thinking about how to satisfy their immediate desires. Such as making bank as quickly as possible, if not quicker. Right up to the point that the risk chickens come home to roost – and crap all over the place.

So if you’re nervous about AI bubbles or whatnot, be bolder with your diversification. By which I mean, consider investing in asset classes that look painful when viewed in a vacuum, but that can be blended together to smooth out your ride.

This way you can aspire to be a bit more average most years – and if that means the difference between you staying invested for the long run and bailing out at some market bottom, it’ll make all the difference.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

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  11. Bhardwaj, Janardanan G, Rajkumar, Geert Rouwenhorst K. 2020. “The First Commodity Futures Index of 1933.” Journal of Commodity Markets. 2020.[]
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