≡ Menu

Best savings account rates

Imagine of a piggy bank to illustrate using the best savings accounts

Disclosure: Some links are affiliate links, where we may earn a commission. This article is not personal financial advice. See all product terms and conditions.

The best savings rates on cash have recovered from dreadful to tolerable in recent years, though generic accounts continue to sport rates as low as 1% AER.

(An AER of 1% is equivalent to £1 per year for every £100 saved. Don’t spend it all at once!)

Higher rates will have been welcomed by many Monevator readers. The low-interest era was especially tough on cautious savers who kept a lot of their wealth in a cash savings account – although clearly higher rates have had impacts elsewhere, too, from the bond market to mortgages.

Today the situation for savers is more nuanced. While accounts paying pitiful rates still abound, the market is much more competitive.

Indeed, account switchers – and of course enthusiasts like myself, who keep a keen eye on interest rates – can out-earn more complacent savers five times over.

Moreover, anyone with a large pot of cash to stash has had something of an unexpected reprieve in recent months. Albeit for unfortunate reasons.

Isn’t it Iranic?

The Bank of England’s Bank Rate had fallen steadily since late 2024.

But with the war in Iran, Bank Rate steadied at 3.75% and further rate cuts are at the least postponed. Interest rates could even rise.

This leaves our savings at the mercy of geopolitics. But whether this leads to more competition in the savings market or to banks nervously edging their rates downwards is hard to call.

Best savings accounts

Perhaps, then, you’re left wondering where you should stash your cash today – or you’d just like a lower-hassle solution to this issue of fluctuating rates?

Let’s look at the different types of accounts available, which ones pay the highest rates of interest, and consider some tricks to make things simpler.

Easy access savings

  • Highest easy access rate if you open a current account: LHV @ 4.25% AER. Open its app-based current account and then open a savings account
  • Highest easy access rate including a temporary bonus: Tembo Money Homesaver @ 4.75% AER, including a 1.75% bonus for 12 months
  • Highest straightforward easy access rate: Charter Savings Bank Easy Access (Issue 73) @ 4.01% AER, open from £1

Easy access is the most popular type of savings account. Such accounts give you instant access to your cash, which means you can add or withdraw money as often as you like. But they also pay far higher interest rates than a typical current account.

Easy access is the best type of account to go for if you know you’ll need access to your cash within a year or so. They’re also the best option if you just don’t want to lock away your cash for some reason.

However there are generally higher-paying options than easy access. So if you apply a mindset of “I must have all my savings available when I want them”, it will cost you.

It’s generally better to divvy up your savings. If you want, say, £20,000 for emergencies and £15,000 is stored for a house move in two years’ time, then you don’t need all £35,000 in an easy-access account.

Note that interest rates on easy access accounts are usually variable, meaning they can change in future. However some do pay a temporary fixed bonus.

Not so easy…

Picking the ‘best’ easy access account is tricky. That’s because there are many accounts out there, all pitched slightly differently.

What’s more, the highest rates are usually only available with strings attached.

LHV is a strong contender at 4.25% AER, but having to open a current account is extra hassle.

The Charter Savings Bank offers a much simpler product at 4.01%. For every £10,000 saved, the difference with LVH’s best offering would only be £24 per year, pre-tax.

Charter Savings Bank tends to release a new issue every time the interest rate wobbles. (If you’ve wondered how it had reached 73 separate issues of the same account, that’s why!) You can get a competitive rate to start with, but your earnings might not increase if rates increase. You’re free to move to the latest issue though, with some minor hassle.

Tembo is an intriguing option. You might want to leave after 12 months when its 1.75% bonus expires, but getting 4.75% AER for a year is decent by today’s standards.

Tembo is actually advertising a 5.75% AER, since it’ll boost your rate by 1% if you use its mortgage service. The service comes with its own fees though, and you could be worse-off than if you’d used a fee-free mortgage broker.

Regular savings

  • Highest regular saver rate if you open an app-based current account: Zopa @ 7.1% AER, open Zopa’s ‘Biscuit’ account and then open a regular saver
  • Highest regular saver rate if you open a traditional current account: First Direct or Co-operative @ 7% AER
  • Highest regular saver rate open to all: Monmouthshire Building Society @ 6% AER, open via its app

Regular savings accounts enable you to put money into them on a monthly basis. Usually their headline rates beat easy access deals, but there are limits as to how much you can save each month. These limits are often quite stingy!

Some regular savers only allow you to hold them for a year. Others restrict your ability to withdraw cash. And the highest-paying accounts are often tied to you also running an associated current account.

Personally, I wouldn’t open a regular savings account on its own unless it was trivially easy – for instance, if it could be opened via the app of a current account I’m already using.

If you need to find the best home for £20,000, then putting £250 away each month doesn’t achieve much. However I’ve previously written a guide explaining how to build a ladder and stash thousands into regular savers if you want to maximise your savings interest.

Notice savings

  • Highest notice savings rate (180 days): The Stafford Building Society @ 4.26% AER
  • Highest notice savings rate (90 days): OakNorth @ 4.15% AER, rate includes a 1% bonus for new customers only

Notice savings accounts are just like easy access accounts, but with an added rule that you must give your provider notice before making a withdrawal. In this way they can beat easy access rates without requiring you to lock away your cash for an excessively long period.

Generally, the longer the notice period, the higher the rate. It does depend on long-term projections in the money markets though.

Personally, I don’t use notice accounts, as I can usually beat their rates with easy access and regular saver alternatives. I’m more than happy to pop a few doors down the (figurative) high street if someone will pay me a fraction more interest. As customers go, I’m as disloyal as they come.

However the big advantage of notice accounts is they can be set-and-forget.

If you know you won’t get around to changing your bank when the market moves, then notice accounts can at least deliver a slightly higher rate than the easy access alternatives.

Again though, if you’re ready to look for the best deals, notice accounts aren’t likely to deliver.

Remember too that they’re variable accounts, so they’re not guaranteed to stay at high rates. When the Bank of England Bank Rate drops, most providers will soon issue their own rate cuts.

Fixed savings

  • Highest fixed savings rate (one year): Close Brothers @ 4.65% AER, minimum £10,000 deposit
  • Highest fixed savings rate (5 years): Close Brothers @ 4.67% AER, minimum £10,000 deposit
  • Highest fixed savings rate (5 years, low minimum): ThisBank @ 4.57% AER, minimum £100 deposit

To secure the highest currently prevailing interest rates, fixed savings accounts are usually the way to go.

With these accounts you must lock away cash for a set period of time. In return, you typically earn a higher interest rate than most easy access alternatives – at the time you put your money away.

Fixed rates can vary significantly depending on long-term interest rate predictions. Right now, there’s little difference between a one-year and a five-year term. But things can change quickly.

Although I think fixed savings accounts have a place, I tend to steer clear. That’s because if I can manage without access to the cash for five years, then I can invest it in potentially more lucrative assets like shares.

However some people do like to keep several years of cash at the ready. And if you most value certainty then you will find it here.

With fixed rates it’s important to appreciate the ‘interest rate risk’ of opting for an account with a long fixed period: if rates rise in future, you won’t be able to benefit until your current term expires.

Reducing the hassle

Some of you will be reading this and thinking it sounds like a nightmare. Opening new accounts with different banks, posting copies of your ID, and remembering yet another app login.

All for only marginally higher rates here and there!

This is where intermediary platforms can provide an interesting alternative.

Hargreaves Lansdown is one such option. Alternatives include Prosper and Flagstone. I don’t have experience of the latter, but I have investments with the UK’s investment behemoth. Hence it was no extra hassle for me to open Hargreaves’ Active Savings Account product.

With Active Savings I can open, for instance, a Close Brothers one-year fixed account at 4.47% AER with just the push of a button.

Admittedly, that rate is 0.18% less than going to Close Brothers direct. But if the hassle factor has you languishing on a lowly rate at your bank, then an intermediary is a better alternative.

In this example, with £10,000 of savings I would earn £18 less (pre-tax) per year with Active Savings versus going direct. No big deal.

But if my money was sitting in a Barclays Everyday Saver paying just 1% AER, and I was planning to move it into a Barclays’ one-year fixed rate account at 3.7% AER – just because I wanted to avoid the hassle of switching provider – then you can see why an intermediary can be a more profitable option.

These services probably won’t get you the best rate. But they can get you a better than average one, and with only a few clicks.

Is a savings account a good idea with high inflation?

After the enormous price rises of recent years, the latest Government inflation figures tell us that Consumer Price Index inflation is running at 3%.

This is the first and biggest problem with cash. Even if you bagged some of the highest rates we’ve listed above, you’d be lucky to see more than a 1% return in real terms. 1

So compared to other asset classes, you probably won’t win with cash in the long run.

However even the most aggressive investors should usually have some of their wealth in cash, whether for diversification or for maintaining an emergency fund. And it’s clearly worth getting the best rate you can on your money, for whatever level of hassle you can deal with.

The second problem with cash is taxes.

If you’re a higher-rate taxpayer, then only the first £500 of savings interest is tax-free. For everything above that, the 4% headline rate gets you just 2.4% after HMRC has had its cut.

Tax-free gilts may well be a better alternative for large sums of money, especially for higher earners.

How much of your portfolio do you currently keep in cash? Have you had any experience with savings intermediaries? We’d love to hear in the comments below. Note that we’ve updated this article with current rates and products, but kept the old comments for interest. Check the dates to be sure.

  1. That is, after inflation.[]
{ 24 comments }

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2026

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q1 2026 post image

I don’t know about you but I’ve forgotten all about the AI bubble since the Iran War started. So that’s something.

However, despite every fund we own falling back since Trump went nuts, the Slow & Steady passive portfolio has still managed to eke out a 2% gain since our last check-in three months ago.

Trump go boom-boom

Here’s what happened to the portfolio’s equity funds since the start of the year:

​​Chart from Morningstar. Nominal annualised total returns (GBP).

This chart is as good an example as you could wish for to show that attempting to predict the markets is a massive waste of time.

Everything was going great guns until bombs started dropping on 28 February. No bombs – no reason for the market to plummet.

Was Trump’s decision predictable? Fundamentally, no.

You could argue that the presence of a US carrier strike group in the Gulf meant something was up. But look at the pivotal point on the chart. If a deal had been struck before 28 February, equities would have probably continued upwards.

As it was, it was fastest fingers first on the ‘sell’ button when the market opened on 2 March.

Nobody knew which way the war-cookie was going to crumble beforehand. Apart from a lucky few who took some – ahem – ballsy flutters on the prediction markets, of course.

How did bonds do?

I’m so glad you asked! Here’s the year-to-date performance of the Slow & Steady portfolio’s much-vaunted defensive partnership:

​​Linkers = World index-linked government bonds hedged to GBP. Gilts = Nominal UK government bonds (All Stocks).

Nominal government bonds do not love an inflationary supply shock – as we saw in 2022.

Hence they’re down again, and standing by for a slump more to their liking. (Think something more along the lines of the Dotcom Bust or the Global Financial Crisis, where demand and liquidity dry up.)

More pleasantly, our index-linked bond fund looks reasonably solid.

It’s a short-term bond fund for one thing, which makes it inherently less volatile than a longer duration gilts tracker. Plus, it’s chock full of inflation-linked bonds. So you’d hope it would perform tolerably well when the consumer price index ticks up.

That said, the very same fund did not cover itself in glory in 2022. Read our individual index-linked gilt vs linker fund comparison for the gory details.

Though it took a while to reveal itself, our passive portfolio’s greatest weakness has proved to be its lack of defensive diversification. If I was starting again now, our model portfolio would include cash, gold, and commodities too.

Commodities are the one asset that is positively thriving right now.

Portfolio raw numbers time

What? You think I’ve been stalling? Well, maybe I have… Here’s the latest scores-on-the-doors, brought to you in CrisisWhatCrisis-o-vision:

The Slow & Steady is Monevator’s model passive investing portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £1,360 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and find all the previous passive portfolio posts in the Monevator vaults. Last quarter’s instalment can be found here.

All returns in this post are nominal GBP total returns unless otherwise stated. Subtract about 3% from the portfolio’s annualised performance figure to estimate the real return after inflation.

The portfolio’s overall annualised return since inception is 7.36%. Subtract average inflation over the period and the real return is about 4.5%.

That will do nicely. The average annualised real return for a 60/40 World/gilts portfolio is 4% since 1900. 1

The story over the portfolio’s lifetime has essentially been equity returns good, bond returns bad.

Grinding out a result

It’s easy to lose sight of, but the Slow & Steady has grown from £3,000 to over £100,000 in 15 years.

That figure places the model portfolio well above the average £80,000 held in pension wealth by people in my age bracket, according to this 2025 analysis of ONS data.

What’s more, this six-figure sum was achieved with relatively modest monthly contributions (£250 a month in 2010 money) and zero pension tax relief, too. (The portfolio is assumed to be held in an ISA.)

No fancy funds or strategies were used. No leverage or market timing. No kung-fu or specialist knowledge required.

All anyone had to do was follow the rules of a straightforward passive investing strategy and keep the faith long enough for it to pay off. (That’s the hard bit.)

It works and there’s no need to over-think it.

The long-term picture

The next chart shows the portfolio’s growth trajectory, along with the various setbacks along the way:

That is one boring chart. It looks like nothing happened. The portfolio has gently wafted up, and world events failed to knock it down again for any period longer than nine months. We shrugged off the drip-feed of fear.

That said, our model portfolio is still down from its December 2021 peak in real terms (See the lighter green line). That only goes to show how pernicious inflation can be.

Fund / asset class returns

Here’s a breakdown of the portfolio’s individual fund performance, with an eye to the short and long-ish runs:

Fund YTD (%)1yr (%)10yr (%)
Emerging markets5.734.59.1
Real estate5.314.53.9
World ex-UK1.828.813.4
UK equities7.536.89.1
World Small cap737.410.6
UK gov bonds-1.23-1.2
Inflation-linked bonds1.75.62.4

​​Data from Morningstar. Nominal total returns (GBP). 10-year figure is annualised.

The short-term view tells us that equity diversification is back in vogue. Emerging markets and UK equities beat the MSCI World – and even the S&P 500 – over the last two years.

How many people don’t even look at UK equities anymore because the British economy appears moribund and the S&P 500 has smashed all-comers for years?

Stop performance chasing, people!

Okay, that’s enough tilting at windmills for one update.

New transactions

Every quarter we throw £1,360 of red meat to the wild dogs of the market. Our stake is split between our seven funds, according to our predetermined asset allocation.

We rebalance using Larry Swedroe’s 5/25 rule. That hasn’t been activated this quarter, so the trades play out as follows:

Emerging market equities

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D – OCF 0.19%

Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642

New purchase: £108.80

Buy 42.2377 units @ £2.58

Global property

iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund – OCF 0.17%

Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71

New purchase: £68

Buy 27.2076 units @ £2.50

Developed world ex-UK equities

Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund – OCF 0.14%

Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73

New purchase: £503.20

Buy 0.6141 units @ £819.40

UK equity

Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust – OCF 0.06%

Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63

New purchase: £68

Buy 0.1848 units @ £367.93

Global small cap equities

Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund – OCF 0.29%

Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05

New purchase: £68

Buy 0.1272 units @ £534.69

UK gilts

Vanguard UK Government Bond Index – OCF 0.12%

Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374

New purchase: £285.60

Buy 2.1073 units @ £135.53

Global inflation-linked bonds

Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund – OCF 0.27%

Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05

New purchase: £258.40

Buy 234.2702 units @ £1.103

New investment contribution = £1,360

Trading cost = £0

Average portfolio OCF = 0.17%

User manual

Disclosure: Links to platforms may be affiliate links, where we may earn a commission. This article is not personal financial advice. When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. With commission-free brokers other fees may apply. See terms and fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Take a look at our broker comparison table for your best investment account options.

Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA for your situation.

If this seems too complicated, check out our best multi-asset fund picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds.

You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing.

Take it steady,

The Accumulator

  1. Jan 1900 to Dec 2025 real total returns in GBP.[]
{ 22 comments }

Weekend reading: Hubris on hold

Our Weekend Reading logo

What caught my eye this week.

This week saw stock markets rally on relief that the US and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.

Weekend Reading – featuring the week’s best money and investing articles from around the web – can be read by any logged-in Monevator member. Alternatively please subscribe to our free email newsletter to get future editions direct to your inbox.

{ 47 comments }
Some weighing scales with the caption: weighing up bonds

I have written a few times in recent years urging Monevator readers not to give up on gilts. (That is, UK government bonds.)

That wasn’t because I’m a diehard gilt groupie. On the contrary, for most of my investing life my allocation to bonds has hovered closer to the flatline than investing orthodoxy would think wise.

However even as rootin’, tootin’, stock-lovin’ active investor I could see that many passive investors were throwing the bond baby out with the bond bear market bathwater.

Who could blame them after the post-Covid, post-Liz Truss bond rout?

As interest rates rose with inflation coming back from the dead, grossly-overpriced bonds crashed. The result was one of the worst stints for UK investors in government bonds of all-time.

Here’s how the iShares core UK 10-year government bond fund swan-dived into the Liz Truss lows of 2022:

Source: Fiscal AI

You don’t need to be Warren Buffett to guess what seeing ‘safe’ assets plunge like this did for investor appetite.

“Be greedy when others are writhing on the floor, breathless, and calling for mummy”, anyone?

No thanks, said many shell-shocked would-be bond buyers.

Once more unto the breach

However, if investors did make a mistake in trusting the market’s wisdom before the bond crash, it was by buying bonds on negative yields that could only deliver a negative return in the long run.

Yet following the bond rout that troughed in 2022, yields-to-maturity were positive across the curve.

At least in nominal terms, gilts were now priced to actually reward investors for holding them.

So it seemed to me some investors were closing the door on gilts after the horse had bolted, run into a ditch, and been winched out looking beaten-up, sure, but ready to run again.

Note: I wasn’t suggesting UK government bonds were a surefire winner. Nor that they’d give Bitcoin or the Magnificent Seven mega caps a run for their money.

It was just that with yields restored to something closer to normal, I felt they could be added to portfolios once more without all that existential negative yield drama.

Gilt trips

So how have gilts performed since those dark days of 2022, when Britain pondered whether a lettuce would do a better job of steering the ship of state?

Well, if you’d muttered “jog on Investor” on reading my articles and kept on shunning gilts, you’d be happy enough. That’s even if you’d parked your money in cash or money-market funds – let alone bought more equities instead.

Because gilts have meandered around doing nothing much since. Indeed with hostilities in Iran, the resultant inflation scare saw the 10-year gilt yield break briefly above 5%, before it fell back on news of a tentative ceasefire:

Source: CNBC

Remember, yields move inversely to price with bonds. All things equal, higher yields on gilts reflects lower prices for existing gilts in the market.

Cor Blighty

As an aside, it’s worth noting that Britain is still considered something of a basket case by international investors.

As CNBC reported towards the end of March:

One of the most alarming aspects of the sell-off in risk assets after the attacks on Iran, from a British perspective, has been how gilts – U.K. government IOUs – fell more sharply than bonds issued by any other G7 economy.

Take the 10-year gilt, the most liquid and most widely-traded of all gilt maturities and the best proxy for the U.K. government’s long-term borrowing costs.

At one point […] the yield hit 5.115% – a level not seen since the global financial crisis in April 2008.

These moves were much sharper than for other G7 countries. Indeed among similar economies only Australia has a higher 10-year yield.

The CNBC author covered the reasons why:

One is that the Bank of England’s policy rate was already the highest of any G7 central bank and Britain’s rate of inflation is higher than that of its peers.

A second is that interest rate expectations for the U.K. have changed more dramatically than any other G7 economy. Before the conflict, the Bank was expected to cut its main policy rate this month – sparking a sharper reaction in gilts.

A third is that, Japan aside, no G7 economy depends more on imported gas – the price of which has surged.

Fourthly, investors dislike U.K. politics. The surge in energy prices has raised fears of higher spending – funded by growth-destroying tax increases or more borrowing – to support households. They also fear that May’s local elections, should the governing Labour Party perform poorly, will result in a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his possible replacement by a more left-wing rival.

But demanding a premium to hold gilts is not new. It was reinforced to the British public most starkly in recent times when, in September 2022, gilts sold off violently after Liz Truss’ government unveiled a mini-Budget including £45 billion worth of unfunded tax cuts.

Market participants spoke of investors demanding a ‘moron premium’ to hold gilts over bonds of equivalent duration issued by peers.

As I’ve pointed out many times in our debates about Brexit, Britain is a relatively small nation that relies on trade for its economic health and ‘the kindness of strangers’ to shore up its finances. It’s been prone to higher inflation than the continent for generations. In leaving the trading bloc we’ve increased those vulnerabilities.

Add in an energy shock and an anti-climactic regime change in Downing Street and there’s still very little for global bond investors to get excited about.

Greater expectations from gilts

So far, so soggy then for gilts.

However there’s still that silver lining to higher bond yields. Namely higher expected returns.

As we pointed out back in 2022:

Rising bond yields are positive for long-term investors who can ride out the capital losses and eventually take advantage of fatter income payments.

Much of the doom and gloom after the Financial Crisis concerned the fact that low yields meant miserly long-term bond returns. It dragged down the equity risk premium as well.

Now, rising rates and a return to the old normal is leaving that particular threat in the rear-view mirror.

Higher coupons should lower bond volatility. They plump up your safety cushion against equity losses, too.

For sure as our article pointed there was a risk that yields would continue to rise.

Inflation will always be a threat to conventional bonds, too.

But the main point was that investors reeling from nominal losses of 30% or more in their gilt allocations were very unlikely to suffer that again from the 2022 starting point. An unusually extreme situation had unwound.

And sure enough, we haven’t seen a repeat of that carnage. While gilt returns have been the definition of ‘meh’ since then, they’ve not blown up any portfolios.

Rather, here’s how owning that iShares 10-year gilt fund (ticker: IGLT) and reinvesting the coupon has performed since the end of 2022:

Source: Fiscal AI

Okay, nobody is posting rocket ship emojis on the back of a 3.4% total return. But it is positive.

What about long duration index-linked bonds? How have they done since I pondered a potential opportunity in index-linked gilts in summer 2023?

Well here’s the total return of IGLT’s index-linked sister fund from iShares (ticker: INXG):

Source: Fiscal AI

That return is negative, which is disappointing – but it’s not negative by much.

Also the opportunity my article was flagging (early) was the emerging chance to buy a positive-returning index-linked ladder at last.

Still, I can’t deny I thought INXG might bounce back a bit more quickly than this.

Short thrift

On the other hand – and especially in his articles since 2022 – The Accumulator has repeatedly suggested that nervous would-be gilt investors should shorten their bond allocation’s duration.

That is, that they should plump for shorter-term bonds (or bond funds) that are less susceptible to interest rate risk.

So here’s how Amundi’s 0-5 year gilt fund (ticker: GIL5) has done since the 2022 annus horribilis:

Source: Fiscal AI

That’s more like what most people want from their bonds!

If we could guarantee even modest ‘up and to the right’ returns from gilts then we’d all be up for owning them. (Spoiler alert: we can’t guarantee that.)

Long odds

At the other end of the spectrum, those ultra long-term gilts like the cultish Treasury 2061 (ticker: TG61) we looked at last summer did rally, but they’ve more recently spluttered out with the war and inflation fears.

For the record, as I type you can lock-in a yield-to-redemption of 5.3% on TG61.

My friend who I quoted in that 2025 article owns his allocation of ultra-long gilts for tail-risk depression insurance. And where else can you get insurance that pays you a decent income while you wait?

It’s sure to have its moment in the sun some day… isn’t it?

Gilts: complex

What you think this wander through the recent returns from gilts proves perhaps depends on what you thought back in 2022. There’s a bit of something for everyone.

I’d hope though that if you honestly expected the intense bond pain to continue, then you at least now take the point about a one-off reset from negative yields, and also how higher yields are good for future returns.

More generally, let’s filch a graphic from The Accumulator. Here’s a quick reminder for why most investors would want to own some government bonds:

You’ll notice ‘stonking gainz’ is absent from TA’s summary.

Most investors aged over 30 or so are advised to own some bonds (or similar lower-risk stuff such as cash) because going all-in on the likely best-performing asset – equities – may be too risky and volatile.

And now gilt yields are normal again, their role as a potential portfolio stabiliser has been restored, too.

Indeed, turn your eyes from the stock market bull run and gilts arguably look quite attractive. The likes of Vanguard expect 10-year gilt returns of around 5-6% a year over the next decade.

This isn’t a bold prediction. The starting yield (to redemption) of gilts is a great guide to your expected returns. Remember, 10-year gilts are already yielding close to 5%.

Goldilocks gilts

Of course we all learned some lessons from 2022.

I’d still contend that Monevator was relatively cautious about gilt returns for a passive-focussed site in the near-zero years before the crash, as a search of our archives will attest. (This prescient warning by The Accumulator from 2016 about negative-yielding index-linked gilts is a case in point).

However it’s fair to say we took our lumps, too.

Our house view now is that prudent diversification should also consider holdings of cash, gold, and potentially commodities. As well as even more careful thinking about bond duration, and perhaps making use of gilt ladders if pure inflation hedging and/or a sequence of real cashflow returns is all-important to you (such as if you’re in retirement and drawing an income).

It’s also true that if governments eventually try to inflate away their ballooning national debts, then the returns from conventional gilts could yet be very poor in real terms.

On the other hand, perhaps they won’t or can’t. And there’s always index-linked gilts to own, too.

Remember all investment choices involve trade-offs. Nothing is 100% ‘safe’ and risk cannot be created or destroyed – only swapped for other kinds of risk.

In particular, if you believe there’s no downside to holding cash or MMFs instead of, say, intermediate-duration gilts, then The Accumulator has shown that historically it would have cost you via lower returns.

Finally, it’s been ages since we had a prolonged bear market for shares. The notion that you had to make the case for an allocation to fixed income will look very strange in such times, if history is any guide.

{ 32 comments }